Beware the Heat Wave

 India is a climate vulnerable hotspot. All studies points to Indian subcontinent to be the worst affected by heat wave region in the world. A heat wave in 2003 killed 70, 000 people in Europe. Imagine the scene with millions of extremely marginalized vulnerable impoverished populations with low health infrastructure access. It's a frightening scenario that has potential to be real. In the last few years intensity and frequency of heat has increased substantially, even temperate regions were experiencing heat domes. European Satellite Agency recorded 55*C land surface temperature in some regions of NW India, places even crossing 60*C. Last year regions in India faced heat waves in March itself which was unprecedented. And this year we are going to see impact of El Nino which will increase the temperature further with less rainfall predicted. So, take a moment to reflect on the enormity of what we are facing. 

Cities with congested vulnerable population will face serious crisis. While indolent greedy policy makers and semi-literate insolent richer section keep constructing glass heat trapped buildings with higher air conditioning load (that is replicated from regions with entirely different ecosystem) the heat island effect is going to make the matter worse. If they are living under the illusion that we can air-condition our way through climate crisis then they are woefully mistaken. Heat wave not only takes away lives but also livelihood and productivity. Environmental impact on economy will have a cascading effect. Hot region like India has tradition of heat resistant buildings and thermal comfort constructions which is being sidelined in the greed for spurious understanding of development that is meant to feed meaninglessness of GDP. Including heat resistance (mitigative action like cool roof) as building code is urgently needed in cities. Cities have 6*C more temperature than surrounding region while congested areas have 6*C more than the city while indoor heat in low ventilated homes can be 8*C more. Imagine the scene how the highly vulnerable millions of people are existing in big cities. Take the example of Delhi the heat wave days in the city was 3 in 2021 which increased to 17 in 2022.  The Ministry for the Future (by Stanly Robinson) is a futuristic fiction book that opens with description of heat waves that kills 20 million people in India. People are running around for cool space (‘moving into sunlight was like pushing into bonfire’) while others cry for help and die of exhaustion. There are power cuts while generators spew toxic air, even limited water is warm, while dirty lake, where hoards went to cool their body, is ‘warmer than blood’. I can easily relate to these scenes. First two years of my stay in Delhi was worse before I decided to take action and earn substantially (mostly con acting with clear advantage of English in pathetic place with mostly despicable people -always abusing and cursing), ofcourse careful not to fall into meaningless wage slavery of 9-5 routine. Congested places with small rooms with no trees or open space but noisy polluting traffic snarls were heat traps. Water was limited and that too was warm from the sun, the building heated up and floor of the roof burned if you try to sleep on terrace. Food gets spoiled easily and one has to be wary of restaurants, sticking to bananas or so, while substantial investment went for bottled water. There was no electricity for most part of the day hence they switched to smoke spewing generators. Search to cooler spaces was beginning of spending times in library. Even in my mid-20s my reading habits were embarrassingly confined to comics and ofcourse encyclopedia (since people rarely opened these huge books it also smelled different) and within two-three years gobbled up best of international literary works. I finished all the books of Dostoevsky, Chekov, Kafka and Naipaul in one summer itself…to cut the story short heat waves are going to severely impact already vulnerable population. 

Not that government is not doing anything. NDMA has come out with Heat Action Plans (HAP), and more than 100 cities/districts have HAP. But as is the case these are just guidelines while actionable HAP are limited. Hindutva must come out of Castetva value system of complacency and blessedness -a constant carefully laid pitfall that they will eventually fall into. Squatting and espousing higher morals with minimal actions or even intent is a tradition that is being inculcated into institution. Power is defined as how many people are under your control or influence which is exhibited by giving misery (“paaklam” was once commonly used word of Tamil in bureaucratic circles of Delhi, euphemism for delay it or not be bothered, while in Kerala the common Hindi word they use to connect to migrant hindi worker is “jaldi karo bhai”). Reaching late for an appointment, meeting or gathering, is daily act of showcasing power which is then emulated by herd seeking power. Delaying decision, not sharing information so on, is an extension of showcasing power and lessons on fate. This blessedness will not work when situation is dire. Hindutva must get its act together and propose new work culture and value system (unfortunately they too are trapped in udan katola and gau mutra defeatist values of exceptionalism and spurious self-importance lacking intellectual vigor or gravitas).

Another issue is lack of dynamic data. Data is important for evidence-based actions. Heat waves are complex and micro vary with local ecosystem, even the definition changes with plains, hills and coastal. Heat index is dependent on dynamic factors like humidity, diurnal variation, wind movement, persistence so on. IOT and latest sensor-based data becomes crucial. It helps in early warning systems, as also creating effective prediction models with AI. All government data must be made accessible to anyone. This includes SAFAR (System of AirQuality and weather Forecasting And Research) data. Why are these being kept secret? There is no space for these kinds of mindsets. Tackling challenges like Heat Waves needs collaborative effort. It has multidimensional cascading impact including food security. Millions of people’s life and livelihoods are at stake.