Bee Day. Bee Day. This an emergency.

 BeeDay BeeDay humans are sinking the biodiversity for their greed and replicating genes. BeeDay BeeDay. This is an emergency. 

Emergent properties or is it “mirage”/“hallucination”/“sparks/glimmer of AGI”?

 

Last few days have been quite bamboozling. The world didn’t know what to make of Geoffrey Hinton’s ominous claims “It is like aliens have landed on our planet and we haven’t quite realized it yet because they speak very good English”, and unbecoming of Wittgenstein these aliens understand us quite well through our languages so as to promptly plot to “wipe out the humanity” -and believe me it does sound chilling in nonchalant british accent. He even quotes French philosopher Blaise Pascal as an afterthought -oh by the way “if you have two alternatives (i.e. AI killing humanity or not) and you have very little understanding of what is going on, then you should say 50 per cent.’ So that’s Geoffrey Hinton, a respected and reputed Turing awarded researcher (incidentally his grandfather George Boole formulated Boolean algebra that lay the foundation for entire digital age), who resigned from Google with this very intention, to warn the unsuspecting world of looming AI apocalypse, something that market media cherishes (atleast here in India they are always ready and looking forward to doomsday scenario, stock pictures and videos of terminators are edited with foreboding soundtrack to rivet the herd). He asserts that we are in new stage of evolution “when biological intelligence gets replaced by digital intelligence”. Hinton is described as godfather of AI, and is behind the recent breakthrough in AI through Large Language Models that is based on neural network and deep learning (back propagation algorithm, which allows AI to refine and extract patterns and concepts on a vast quantity of data, that is, learning based generative AI as against reason/logic based) that changed the way machines see the world. Though neural network has been area of research since 1950s but was at technological dead end, hence mathematical system emulating human brain was considered bewilderingly impossible so much so that even the word “neural network” was seen as offensive. Hinton doggedly pursued with minimum of facilities and research students aiming to create machines that could not only recognize objects but identify spoken words, understand natural language, converse, and solve problems humans couldn’t solve on their own.  In 2012 they presented paper with the breakthrough claim (incidentally 2012 is also the year in which another breakthrough technology, CRIPSR Cas9, paper was presented, and those keen on doomsday a movie named '2012' -mayan calendar whatever). Understanding the significance of this revolutionary technology big tech companies (including the Chinese) bid to acquire through close door auction. Finally, they went with Google but by now others were aware that gamechanger was on the horizon so the world was set for an AI race fueled by generative algorithm. Startup DeepMind was acquired by Google while OpenAI by Microsoft. OpenAI eventually brought out ChatGPT. Those who were keeping abreast with the latest in this field are aware that much before ChatGPT there were indications of something significant at work. I am sure some us have watched the documentary AlphaGo (2017) that defeated world champion in Go game, what was interesting was the emotional response of Lee Sedol -a sensitive fellow who eventually retired from the game, the counter intuitive moves were not accidental but reflection of something deep at work. Anyone who has watched AlphaZero (AI trained by playing with itself instructed on basic rules and objective function of winning with no human input) play with StockFish (till recently the most powerful chess engine that was trained on human games) will know how spectacular neural network based deep learning is. Its counter intuitive strategy makes moves that no human ever made, it brings out pattern beyond human comprehension, and could only be known once the game is over for you to analyze. It’s spell binding.

So, has AI acquired emergent properties? The concept of emergence has been in use in science for decades, it means complex, unpredictable behaviors, emerging from simple natural laws. Emergent phenomena are ubiquitous in nature (indeed nothing in science makes sense without emergence) and a proper grasp of how they come about could hold the key to solving some of our biggest mysteries. Nobel laureate physicist Philip Anderson worked the idea of emergence as quantitative changes that can lead to qualitatively different and unexpected phenomena. For AI LLM systems (which are very large transformer neural networks, often spanning across hundreds of billions of parameters, trained on hundreds of gigabytes of text data) it means abilities not present in smaller models but present in larger models, unexpected and unintended abilities, to elaborate further, impressive abilities gained by programs that they were supposedly never trained to possess, that is, seeking to transcend for new functions. So, as a dampener, a paper (yet to be peer reviewed) by a team of Stanford scientists, argue that the “glimmers of artificial general intelligence (AGI)” we're seeing are all just “an illusion”. They found that when “more data and less specific metrics are brought into the picture, these seemingly unpredictable properties become quite predictable”. The researchers argue that "existing claims of emergent abilities are creations of the researcher's analysis, not fundamental changes in model behavior on specific tasks with scale”. In simple terms it means that it is borne out of inherently flawed metrics. Soon enough some have gone for the attack, this from an article I read the other day “Claiming that complex outputs arising from even more complex inputs is ‘emergent behavior’ is like finding a severed finger in a hot dog and claiming the hot dog factory has learned to create fingers”. “Modern AI chatbots are not magical artifacts without precedent in human history. They are not producing something out of nothing. They do not reveal insights into the laws that govern human consciousness and our physical universe. They are industrial-scale knowledge sausages”. Even the claims of ChatGPT learning new language, Bengali, on its own is being questioned. There are allegations of market ploy to get attention and investors. It surely is getting nasty. Neural network based deep machine learning generative algorithm can provide solutions to lots of our problems, and may even bring out hidden logics of fusion, but to claim that it will provide solutions for climate change or biodiversity loss is spurious. Scientists and researchers have it well documented, AI will only make it much clearer but that shouldn’t be an excuse to distract from fossil fuel. There is already an attempt to distract towards fossil fuel emissions in forthcoming COP28 -a meet which is already doomed.    

So where is the truth? The truth is not in the extremes. There are enough evidences of emergent ability in AI, atleast in narrow discreet setting. Halicin, protein folds so on are some brilliant examples of AI probing reason beyond our comprehension. The brilliance of few simple rules of chess or Go that created unexpected complexities of moves or reasons in black box that we are not privy to. Clearly very complex is being solved with a relatively simple algorithm. This is emergent ability. The problem is when you confine AI/generative algorithm to LLM, as also mess up with claims of AGI, conscious, sentient and what not. On its own LLM models like ChatGPT4, PaLM, BARD so on are quite spectacular achievement, one needn’t spoil it with claims of AGI. There is digital intelligence that is created when billions of parameters and gigabytes are involved, and with multimodal input through everyday talk, videos, converted into texts for LLM, meaning sights and sounds are accessed, and very conceivable for other senses be activated. It is conceivable that LLMs develop an internal complexity that goes well beyond a shallow statistical analysis. It will be certainly much more than a stochastic parrot, and carry complexity to build some representation of the world. Language have evolved through thousands of years of iteration and has logic of thought that is based on simple rules of grammar but meanings are approximation of logic and context that may not be expressible or confined through grammar. Powerful AI is well placed to access this black box logic of thought. Hinton is right there is an alien that is the sum total of our language.

One would also agree with Hinton that digital intelligence is better than biological intelligence but whether biological intelligence is transition towards digital intelligence is questionable. Digital intelligence requires much more energy but is shared across entire networks and can process much more data than we can. It’s efficient hence better that surely doesn’t mean prescient. Biological intelligence is byproduct of millions of years evolution and in necessary iteration through senses to surrounding. Mutualism and symbiotic relations have significantly contributed to evolution of life.  There is a compelling argument that is put forth: if submarines do not swim like fish and airplanes do not fly like birds then why should computers think like humans? Quite true, and black box logic is ample proof of it. But then fishes and birds are not only swimming and flying they also think and live a complex life. Logic is only a part of thinking, and complexity of human thinking is a wonder despite low memory and weak computation. Humans will not be able to identify intricate pattern in complex iteration of powerful computations but they can create complex associations without any pattern, intuit and use emotion to evaluate. Though evolutionary algorithm (also algorithms from nature like swarm intelligence, and for instance light weighting algorithm to optimize energy and resource from as simple an organism as slime mold) adds to complexities of digital intelligence, in few iteration that has millions of years of making, it is fixed on what exist today as determination of collective intelligence pattern on which to iterate learning. This wouldn’t factor breakthrough ideas that define human progress. Nevertheless digital intelligence has lots of possibilities and danger too. It needn’t be smarter than human to create trouble. Consider a virus it doesn’t really have the kind of biological intelligence nor consciousness that humans have but still are lethal and can wipe out substantial human population as also severely strain and collapse human created systems. Even a single cell life form like virus or bacteria that doesn’t match human intelligence have sophisticated attack and defense systems (that even question anthropomorphized ideas of intelligence). You just have to look at amazing array of bacteriophages and bacterial defense like Crispr. Biological intelligence had luxury of billions of years to evolve. Digital intelligence has deep learning memory with unmatched computation power that will grow exponentially it is therefore expected that it delves into complexity of pattern and show emergent ability to generate logic and surprises that takes us closer to nature of reality.               

The CNN syndrome

CNN positions itself as some kind of value-based savior media, we too fall for the ruse forgetting that these are money making enterprise, and like cheapskates positioning as media in India they too are working for next meal or EMI. It’s a miserable life. You can always find relevant news through online platform streamline to your need, as for Indian media I follow the worst references catering to my expectations from Indian media (it’s hilarious the way these dimwits use adjectives as clickbait). There was a time when Pronnoy’s angels cooed with castetva sycophants to save the world, dangerous caste cannibal lacking any discerning skill whatsoever as President of India opened up democratic institutions to honor greatest living Indians, saccharine fizz seller (exploiting groundwater, plastic polluting and ofcourse disease spreading) was right at the top list. If you got into the minds of likes of Pranab for insight you will shudder at the degradation. A tradition of deeply flawed psychopaths like ‘Rajaji’ nurtured by castetva forces, imagine the despicable caste cannibal grabbing Governor General’s position licking the colonials while playing freedom, even snarled for President’s position, snatched the Bharat Ratna, meanwhile presented as CM of TN (the degradation this trash in human form unleashed is still felt). There are streets, colonies even a wildlife sanctuary (that too in Uttarakhand) named after this pus. He is an abiding inspiration for all the manipulators getting up every day morning to manipulate afresh to never give up! 

So, where does CNN fit in? We have seen in recent times how BBC has degraded itself, indeed a media that emerges from monarchy feudal and christianity ensconced value system is already compromised. With Fox News asked to pay the due for its wanton misdeeds in the garb of media hence diminished the charlatans at CNN saw an opportunity to fill in the gap. Imagine these scoundrels. They invited former president -space shifting sputum- and this is the least offensive reference I can muster, to balance. They arranged it to fit in the market needs, essentially a jolly affair to keep the herd happy. CNN very well knew herd is now a mob, and the mobster is slick in his turf. Nevertheless, they went ahead, this foolhardy entitled assurance and heuristic salivating is a defining characteristic of the times we live in. Pity. Beware people. Be very careful of these high-end manipulators. They are here to mollycoddle the powerful and least bothered how much misery it causes. They are here to do what benefits them. They are here to prime us to compromise and tolerant to degradation as we loose our world and our sensibilities. These are the entertainers on the deck of sinking ship. These are the foot soldiers of apocalypse. There is nothing else to this template. The system has iterated for narrow gains for too long hence gone crazy. Period.   

Post script: what I have realized over time is that existential issues like climate change or extinction cannot really be tackled with contemporary framework, the market capitalist economy and opportunistic systems that it nurtures. It seems to be futile. These are stampeded by manipulators trying to position for benefit. Prescient youngsters and perceptive indigenous people are only genuine presence, and you can really feel for them. We have failed, the system panders the herd and herd controllers, a self-defeating loop. It has become impossible to take collective action for common good. Sustainable technologies and solutions seem the only way out.   

An open letter to Mr. Charles

 

Dear Mr. Charles,

"We are under no king; let each vindicate himself."-Seneca 

I write this from India, a former colony of Britain that still suffers from after effects of colonial exploitation. Not that it was better off before colonialized, but then we need someone to blame and british raj ticks all the excuses. The reason I am writing in English, and not in Spanish or French, is just as fated. India was waiting to be colonized, and it just happened to be Britain. So, we common people were fated. Your luck. English is an interesting language though, and opened new areas of inquisitiveness unlike Indian languages that were stuck in time warp of unenterprising self-obsessed people. I don’t agree with civilizing mission of racist colonizers nor do I agree on accomplished civilized mission of primitive Indian elite. India was always trapped in worst of outcomes. So, nobody really can be blamed. Some talk of reparation and apology. There is really nothing to apologize for nor any need for reparation. What happened must be seen in the context of time. Line has to be drawn. Few centuries back world was a nasty place. Might and power decided what was right. Most of the world lived in terror of aggression and exploitation. Europeans were efficient and enterprising to create technology to explore the world. While much of the world lacked, it is not that they were non violent or peace loving -indeed societies are brutal and it’s a common feature, they are essentially defined by dominant value systems. Humans are as violent as nature is. For last few decades much of world has created systems of law and order, democratic institutions and justice system, hence spaces of peaceful secure existence for most people.

In the last few centuries monarchies in Europe provided for long periods of tranquility within their boundaries, and during these periods most of them encouraged and provided space for best of human expressions and ideas, that accumulated from best of all across the world through time from Greeks to Mesopotamia to Chinese and so on. Much of astounding progress of humanity in the last few decades can be traced to these. It’s not that other part of the world did not contribute. It was sporadic and most were incapable to sustain due to various factors. Britain specifically was responsible for amazing progress in science under the royal patronage. Not that science would not have progressed without royal patronage but taken much longer time (facts are already there, if not Newton someone else). Essentially this would have shifted the trajectory of human progress which we see all around us, and possibly we would still be living in the grip of fate driven fantasies and superstitions in a much-diminished world. So, European monarchies despite committing atrocities all across the world -which ofcourse seems natural in the context of time, have served humanity immensely by creating settled secure space, hence traditions of contemplating into streams of thoughts, consolidating into systematic learning and enquiry, that put foundation to further search and research. Hence thank you to the monarchs who lived during those ages. They guided for better world.

The world has come a long way since then. Humanitarian values have consolidated in most part of the world. We value freedom, equality, liberty and dignity of each individual, and these form the lynchpin of human interactions and foundations for institutions on which humanity’s progress is dependent on. Without these we are back to medieval uncertainties. Reparations and apologies are not needed but systems that sustains feudal values cannot be supported hence must go. Tradition and culture that doesn’t sustain egalitarian values are not progressive hence persistent threat and source for misery. It is therefore important for you to understand that existence of monarchy is an anachronism that is challenging all that is precious to humanity, to each and every of eight billion humans on this planet, particularly to the most vulnerable. How will you explain your position to that bright child negotiating her way to school despite overwhelming odds? Can you answer any of the question that a man working 9-5 for meagre existence has? Will you be able to answer the woman walking in treacherous heat for daily pot of water? You cannot. All your weight of history and tradition is too light to the existential realities of life. Ascriptive exceptionalism is worst of possibilities, it sustains the most degraded humans that live among us and a constant threat whether caste cannibals (hindus) or monster mullah (islam) or racist whites (christians) so on. The world is facing enough serious crisis whether climate change, species extinctions or AI generated polarizing disinformation set to be unleashed etc. and these need immediate attention. What the world is witnessing in Britain is an embarrassing display of medieval theatre of absurdity. It is an assault on humanity. It is exciting the worst kind of people from all across the world, and initiating juvenile binary discussions we don’t need. Adult humans can be better than this. Please grow up. Have a reality check. Abdicate.  

Best wishes

A concerned fellow

From your former colony                           

 

Terrifying reality of Artificially generated fakes

 

Something sinister is taking over the world. Suddenly one is not able to trust one’s senses. This is crucial since it is when we sense things that we can understand, comprehend through complex interactions of knowledge, experience, intuition and critical thinking faculties. This then becomes part of us, our memory, learning and future evaluation reference. If we cannot even trust our senses then situation becomes dire, as it is the world is increasingly nurtured by greedy self-centered people who are looking out to optimize their world view to ensnare people into profit. They are targeting our worst instincts to engage hence nurture addiction and outrage. It’s not that these things were not happening before. In India for instance, that lacks enlightened core to nurture better ways, for decades worst of people degraded possibilities of modern systems. Every new understanding, ideas or gadget became tool to manipulate for greed for power, money and influence. Marketeers and manipulators controlled the system with worst of tradition that became pointers for playing diversity, words were being used devoid of any meaning, they used power blatantly to control narration and give impression to West of liberal and progressive. They morph into best version of what West demands or expects. While ironically West, like Britain, was compromised with monarchy and feudal ways, crucially they controlled far off lands that encouraged corruption through money laundering so on. Attack on Iraq and its blatancy is a study on how deep the rot is. And I am quite sure dark money is pouring to them as gifts, influence, so on to work narration. This is how neo colonialism work. You benefit from framework of colonialism and feudal values with least of effort. These were also setting standards for the world, having amassed wealth and influence through colonial exploitations and slavery. Then the audacity to evaluate.  

I have closely observed manipulators at work. These are the worst kind of humans, and they have spread all across the world. Societies with strong ethical foundations tend to be less compromised, societies that invested on education and care tend to have compassionate value systems, but nevertheless these sinister forces work on the sidelines to pounce on every opportunity, that is essentially targeting weakness of human or system. They are here for money and power whichever way they can grab it. Semantics (without any meaning except as debating point to showcase their liberal bearing and virtue signaling) and control of narration is how they extended their sinister grip. Lacking egalitarian foundation democratic institutions get compromised, and nurture worst of possibilities. It was not an accident that british media went with the lies (‘sexed up’) of Blair and Labour party to attack Iraq and cause deaths and untold suffering to millions of people, and this less than a century ago when they caused horrendous atrocities through colonialism and slavery, the memories of which still flare the collective psyche. Clearly, the system is compromised hence the cosmetic, indeed damaging, attempts at multiculture that encourage worst of others. Religiophilia seems to be the latest strategy by charlatans in West to have upper hand on narration. From this entitled worldview common people are fodder for highest morals. The concerns that will deeply and disproportionately impact them like climate change or flawed economic systems so on will be least of concern. The everyday apprehension is to control the narration till the weekend, and weekend I am told is for partying.    

Now if this is how the world is then imagine the havoc AI generated images, videos, voices and deep fakes are going to unleash on the hapless people. We are living in a world where trust is almost nonexistent. So, we have to go by facts, and take effort to verify from diversity of sources. What we see and hear is an important source of fact, ofcourse these could be cleverly edited to create narration, but now imagine what we see and hear itself is patently fake and still we are not able to discern. Imagine the deep sense of disorientation this creates. This is precisely where the world is entering, and wait with baited breath to see how these will be manipulated by worst of people. Market media has primed us for fake, every product is sold to us through fake narration that targets lowest emotions to part with our money and time. This Ponzi scheme hides under the euphemism of words like democracy, freedom, choices and growth. Worst of people are edging out the best possibilities of democratic institutions, religions and human associations. Everything is graded, classified, and evaluated for profit. Hence, it’s but natural that worst of AI will spread faster. Lies always travel faster but AI generates lies on steroids.  Ofcourse immense possibilities of AI will work in the background through meticulous contribution from best of people with best of intentions. Apart from fakes biases and prejudices are multiplying and being reinforced with machine learning algorithm trained on skewed data. Even the objective function tends to be infected with subjective aspiration embedded in mathematically defined success. The purpose defined for machine learned generative algorithms is sketchy when interfacing with human values, hence the alignment problem.

I as a consumer and a concerned person would like to know what is machine learning goal of the system I am interfacing with? I should have the right to know whether what I am dealing with i.e. seeing or hearing is AI generated. There should be red letter tag AG (Artificially Generated) warning or similar clear indication. You cannot stop AI, you can only regulate with sensible actionable restrictions. Since this is an issue that is not confined to national borders an international law is needed before it’s too late. This powerful technology is developing very fast and worst of people, nurtured into powerful positions by compromised systems, have access to it. This shouldn’t be means to quantify suffering of majority of people into greed for money, power and position for few. If not acted with alacrity AI generated fake world has potential to collapse democracy, and hard-won values of freedom and liberty. The pandemic of misinformation, disinformation, lies and fakes are on AI steroid. They are infecting experiences. There is a significant qualitative shift happening in the creation and presentation of fake in the last few months. The situation really is quite dire, and what is unfolding is indeed terrifying.