Thursday, January 30, 2025
Monday, January 27, 2025
Future is not in scaling
It is not scaling but optimization. In nature species survive using sophisticated strategies with less and rarely by scaling and growing bigger and bigger or using brute forces. Nature optimizes through utilizing shape and conserving energy. System as it optimizes there is a synergic elegance that sync with forces of nature. Sophistication is simplified play of various complexities. As we move towards quantum the more these nuances are understood better is the chance to tap on to source. I recall mentioning researchers using c elegans as a template to use few neurons to create a neural system for self-driving vehicles (visit me at https://depalan.blogspot.com/2024/05/how-creative-is-ai.html). Imagine the level of sophistication of slime mold that doesn’t even have neuron! Imagine sophisticated strategies of microscopic viruses like bacteriophages and elegant devastatingly brilliant evolutionary response by bacteria. To know that crispr might just be tip of iceberg sends shiver. These species are tapping on iterated strategies evolved for 3.5billion years. Homo sapiens meanwhile evolved only about 0.2millions years. Suffice to add microorganisms work in survival of humans through symbiotic associations, so we too are involuntarily tapping on billions of years of intelligence of bacteria while we study viruses and worms to understand cutting edge evolution.
DeepSeek Chinese AI chatbot is a
bombshell, some are calling it sputnik moment. More than an occasion that will
spur AI race between US and China -which it surely has as the gap close, what
it is indicating is paradigm shift in AI progress (frankly I was expecting Japanese to come with more-from-less AI tech, they really are quite good at miniaturized sophistication!). DeepSeek's R1 chatbot has used fewer
and less sophisticated chips that outperforms models developed by OpenAI, Google,
Meta and Anthropic across various benchmark and overall quality. It has shaken
the AI industry. It questions the focus of AI infrastructure.
Saturday, January 25, 2025
What a wonderful book!
Reading a book is an investment
of time and effort. So, you have to be careful what you choose to read. Located
in a society with mostly low caliber pretentious writing, the collective premium
on quantity rather than quality, it become an arduous task to choose good
books. It took me few months of reading the best of Indian writers to realize
the pattern that lack the fervor and sincerity, it is a patch up staid work of
patronizing and proprietorship meant to awe the herd, an extension of self as
entitlement, guardian of society as wise writers and creative people
automatically elevated as overseer of wellbeing of unfortunate mass. In this
crass conception river is no longer river but god’s braid, land becomes godly mother,
trees are undoubtedly god’s miracle…such self righteous sacred sickness...and from this blessedness of profound disconnect
from reality they carry persistent civilizational itch and overbearing
self-assigned responsibility to search meaning of their goddamn life. Writing
in all-encompassing flourish and uncommon confidence lacking qualities and restraints of self-reflection with meagre skills they rush to quainter aspects
and bigger questions of life for which they are naturally fated to find answers, existing all the while in plain sight as greatness of ancient mythical wisdom
and uniquely gifted cave dwelling ancestors. Having appropriated miracles through words in simultaneous
immunity from nuance or empathy they stampede for recognition for their
nonexistent abilities, to claw to greater showcase, a grim battle to anchor
their mediocrity into rewards, positions, recognitions without which they face abyss of anonymity hence all the attributes and desperations to social climb of middle class -the
one that truly connects them to common people by default, and validate veneer of
sophistication over crude nouveau rich amass. It is when I read best of international
writers that I realized amazing depth of lack in Indian writing -ofcourse with
very few and rare exceptions. As a reader it took lot of effort to create
framework for accessing better writing.
“It seems easier on balance
not to read the news. Some do and some don’t, but it’s easier not to. When they
look at the planet it’s hard to see a place for or trace of the small and babbling
pantomime of politics on the newsfeed, and it’s as though that pantomime is an
insult to the august stage on which it all happens, an assault on its gentleness,
or else too insignificant to be bothered with. They might listen to the news
and feel instantly tired or impatient. The stories a litany of accusation,
angst, anger, slander, scandal that speaks a language both too simple and too
complex, a kind of talk in tongues, when compared to single clear, ringing note
that seems to emit from the hanging planet they now see each morning when they
open their eyes. The earth shrugs it off with its every rotation. If they
listen to the radio at all it’s often for music or else something with an innocence
or ultimate neutrality about it…something with a sense of play, of things
mattering and then not mattering, of coming and going and leaving no mark. And then
even those they listen to less and less”. Reading these lines seems something
similar to what you experience in meditative silence in nature, the stillness that
lasts in profound awareness and becomes part of your being, an armor against overwhelming
crass. But then there is also an inescapable realization “…then one day
something shifts. One day they look at the earth and they see the truth. If only
politics really were a pantomime. If politics were just farcical, inane, at
times insane entertainment provided by characters who for most parts have got
where they are, not by being in any way revolutionary or percipient or wise in their
views, but by being louder, bigger, more ostentatious, more unscrupulously
wanting of the play of power than those around them, if that were the beginning
and the end of the story it would not be so bad. Instead, they come to see that
it’s not a pantomime, or it’s just not that. It’s a force so great that it has
shaped every single thing on the surface of the earth that they had thought,
from here, so human-proof.”
Friday, January 24, 2025
The great unravelling
In the aftermath of World War II,
as colonial power retracted, deep state consolidated all across the world. In weaker
nations with nascent compromised democratic institutions powerful outside
forces arbitrated these consolidations. These seized entrenched channels of
colonialism to create post-colonial exploitation couched in language of democracy
and liberal values. So instead of nurturing democracy they used democracy as
source of control. Democratic values were undermined to consolidate democratic institutions
as source of power. It activated feudal framework, regressive institutions and
primal associations as easy mechanism to ensnare and control herd. So
eventhough people voted, ostensibly to different political parties, it is similar
kind of people who get elected with incremental addition that valued status
quo, and these elected leaders were further controlled by superstructure of
deep state. A clear case of deep state control is spread of neoliberal extractive
system that used language of democracy to consolidate and used feudal nepotistic
connections to extract. That this extractive mechanism seems immune to immense
misery through widening inequality and imminent collapse of climate is telling.
They use manipulated media controlled in neoliberal value systems to create and
control narrations as also keep the herd distracted. Any aberration is ridiculed
and stamped out as threat.
In the garb of democracy with no
connection to reality, unhinged in self importance, they promoted extreme as natural choice, extreme crude choice of
‘identity’, extreme form of religions (specifically conveniently constructed ‘minority’
through narration control as their lynchpin of benign caring self in an
increasingly apparent compromised self that was easy for common people to decipher). Meanwhile to prevent scrutiny they undermined the ability by degrading primary education and access to health, as the crass spread they positioned as civilized blessed arbitrators. As the misery grew people reacted in ridicule (one word that saw realtime shift
into complete opposite of its meaning in shortest of time is ‘woke’, a pejorative
sarcasm that consolidated through social media) and as the anguish multiplied opportunistic
forces saw the widening gap while the deep state posing as liberal wallowed in self-assured
arrogance. Reactionary forces consolidated through majority extremism and calls
of sentiments connecting to glorified past that is being threatened. If democracy had percolated
through humanist institutions, if liberal thinking had consolidated through quality
education, then it would have worked as anchor so as to not allow misuse of democracy
couched in language of liberal to nurture any form extremism and regressive
values. If liberal was rooted in humanistic concerns and not a compromise to
capture power by sinister feudal forces to maintain control under the garb of democracy
and high sounding ethical concerns then we wouldn’t be in this impasse in
crucial juncture of human history. If systems of control were demystified and negated
to help humanistic values to percolate to each individual we wouldn’t have seen
en masse regressive consolidation. Liberals were living vicarious life by exaggerating
concerns to make themselves relevant. Arrogance prevented awareness of shifting reality -nor were they really bothered as long as anything that gave
them traction to showcase carefully tailored benign self -essentially built on
misery of common people.
Make no mistake the opposing
forces, although unleashing chaos across the world, is still a binary within
the framework of neoliberal value system except that the pretentions of liberal
is scaled down or abandoned. The regressive majoritarian is viciously seeking
to occupy the centerstage. The viciousness is the key attribute here, it
carries the rage of people left neglected and ridiculed, it effectively channelizes the
helplessness of common people in an increasingly insular manipulated world. Deep
state created system of control and the political parties occupied this spectrum
of influence in different shades of opportunism. What Trump represents (as also those with authoritarian
tendencies but supported by populace) is the promise of uprooting status quo,
the ensuing chaos in the carefully constructed liberal world. There is an unraveling
of liberal control deep state, the hypocrisy of those in power in last many
decades will be exposed. And I surely hope it is devastating so that we get to reevaluate
the meaning and significance of liberty and freedom and how it is consolidated through
democratic institutions. The sinister system of control posing as liberal need
to be exposed. Since democracy has not percolated this chaos will consolidate another
system of control -the conservative religion and opportunistic faith. Secular humanism
was misused by sinister forces and has lost ground to retrieve herd. What is
clear is that juvenile religion will give ample space for neoliberal system to
extract and keep the herd rivetted.
Thursday, January 09, 2025
Facts matters
“Journalists have a set of standards and ethics. What Facebook is going to do is get rid of that and then allow lies, anger, fear and hate to infect every single person on the platform.” Marria Ressa (courageous Filipino journalist who runs Rappler news site as she faced death threat from Duterte). Ms Ressa’s statement carry the right emotion and channelize growing concern of obfuscating facts by powerful entities. But she is wrong in her assertion here. Based in India I can vouch that media (within this people posing as journalists) do not have standards nor set standards and will not be allowed to, most don’t even understand nor are concerned about anything referred to as ethics. This is why this statement is so naïve indeed embarrassing, it seems an attempt to salvage semblance of normality in increasingly chaotic by invoking righteousness of past and entitled possessors. This will not do. If you have to safeguard facts then you surely will have to understand the context of mainstreaming facts and the forces at work. Fact is understood by the way it is worked and presented. Traditional arbitrators of facts have created narration that is being strongly challenged thanks to democratization of views in recent times. Views vary facts don’t. But the context of facts and the backstory of power and control that deviously try to align facts with narration needs scrutiny and evisceration. Those posing as media do not have carte blanche over controlling facts. That era is thankfully over, and except few nobody is regretting. The contemporary challenges need new narration that sync with the changing reality, a new means to address evolving complexity. Invoking past as standard will not help, it is simplistic folklore if not devious attempt at control.
Mainstream media is about control, and within that control creating narration of goodness (consolidated as morals, closely aligning with dominant forces and normalizing systems of control) to gain validity among populace. It surely isn’t about fact dissemination but using the ruse of fact to stream views as it fits their agenda or immediate opportunities presented. With increased awareness common people know the crassness that goes under the garb of media. To expect media to be arbitrators of facts is foolhardy. Facts without context is meaningless. When the meaning is facilitated by narrow concerns and exploitative forces then facts are compromised. Facts becomes means for heuristic opportunism and control by few through everyday events that they carefully choose to focus. The system of control works within the framework of entrenched feudal values as it seeks opportunities to consolidate sentiments for easy regressive link with herd. Mainstream media, especially legacy media, primed in neoliberal value system is here to perpetuate extractive systems. They use language of democracy and euphemism of concern to gain and consolidate their authority through fig leaf of malleable facts.
Facts are important. Freedom of expression is equally important. In the era of social media nothing can be curtailed. Red line is threat of violence and invasion of privacy, as also rights of children. Social media challenges systems of control by giving voice to common people. It has diluted influence of entrenched interests. So, the question now is what to do when facts clash with freedom of expression? It has to be put in the context that facts weren’t really that sacred till recently as also easily manipulated by working the context, giving prominence to selected facts over the other as decided by few. Some facts were chosen and consolidated into entrenched narrations through views of powerful, it assumed legitimacy and credence over people. What has changed now is faster dissemination and far-reaching debilitating consequences. There are serious attempts by bad players to willfully spread lies and disinformation, incite people with conspiracy theories. There need to be stricter laws to deal with disinformation that create real life consequences. Consequence and context decide severity of punishment. Meanwhile common people need to be equipped in critical thinking as a long-term strategy, and I hope responsible societies are investing in these crucial areas (this blogger created module without much success, mediocre insulated Indians will take time). Twitter/X has created this innovative method of ‘community notes’ without hindering freedom to express. I think it works fine, and has helped to give context and attempts at verified facts. We also need an independent agency (not controlled by powerful vested interests) to provide these services that is also simultaneously open to scrutiny and verification. There is a need for innovative solutions in the fast-changing world. You also need to treat people with respect and empathize with their predicament and concerns -the world is in flux, while severely dealing and persistently negating deconstructing demystifying systems of control. Do not underestimate potential of free thinking. It is what defines a human.
Wednesday, January 08, 2025
Sunday, January 05, 2025
Anchoring ethics in cesspool of moral relativism
It is irresponsible to not cherish
hard won values that anchor progressive concerns and humanism that form basis
of democratic institutions. Democracy values freedom, liberty and equality, and
is an evolved system that emphasis potential of each life and offer possibilities
of collective advance. Ofcourse there can be restraints for common good, for equity
and justice, as also common-sense contextual exigencies. But what must be made unequivocal
is that this restraint cannot be under the guise of power or means to control. This
is the problem that emerges in irresponsible societies wallowing in hedonistic
luxury normalized through transactional and neoliberal exploitative systems padded
by benefits from colonial past. This has to be dealt.
Democratic egalitarian values
must be firmly anchored to institutions as it percolates into society and individuals.
It is a crime, indeed a crime on humanity, to negate or attempt to diminish
these foundational ethics. What is unqualified in this cherished mooring is equality
of race and gender (an evolved society will not have such distinctions). There really
cannot be any compromise, there is no moral relativism on these crucial matters
that hinges fundamental rights, indeed there cannot be any negotiation that diminishes
humanity.
Any system that creates ascriptive
distinction is threat to democracy. Feudal structures negate egalitarian values
while patriarchy infects minds, nepotism undermine equal opportunity. Indoctrination
of young minds in exceptionalism of juvenile primitive fantastical conceptions
like religion remains a serious threat to humanity. Systems of degradation cannot
be and will not be allowed to be source of diversity. Diversity is quaint and nuanced
understanding that nourishes societies and strengthen democracy. Diversity of
culture that values and respect each life, diversity of ideas that seeks brighter
possibilities and question status quo entrenched negations, diversity of
expressions of each according to their potential. Advanced societies must value
and firmly anchor foundational ethics into institutions while constantly strive
to inspire and advance humanity. Society must evolve and synergize with the
pace of technology to imbibe the best possibilities. Diversity also means
dismantling or actively negating systems of control that doesn’t provide equal rights
to individuals. Foundational nonnegotiable ethics means each must have access
to all possibilities, for instance what is allowed for males must be equally be
allowed to females, any system that seeks to curtail these is a serious threat
to humanity (for instance FIFA men's cup cannot be allowed in Saudi unless women's cup allowed - women free to play in any street). Quality education is foundational to inclusive society, there is
no space for indoctrination of young minds hence must have access to all possibilities
and ability to tolerate differences. The basic identity of a human is to be a
human first, to be a fully human. The first task of egalitarian society primed
in democratic values is to create systems to nurture this fully human. To be
aware of all that is possible. A fully human will naturally be able to
negotiate challenges of evolving world and assimilate collective sensibilities.
Compromised countries like Britain were exceptionally irresponsible and have severely
degraded the world as they attempt to obfuscate human rights, its exaggerated patronizing
presence in contemporary scene is due to its colonial past and reach of
english.
Historic injustice must be
corrected through inclusive systems and surely not by devious morphing and maintaining
of extractive exploitative systems as benevolent. A human must be valued as a human. This is as
basic as it gets, and from this foundation inclusive diversity build.
Wednesday, January 01, 2025
Arise the dreadful
Monday, December 23, 2024
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Third millennium thinking
We are living in a miraculous but
paradoxically perilously fissured world. So, on the one side we have such
amazing technological development, access to information and connection to the
world that was inconceivable even few decades back, we live incredible time
that seems a miracle if you trace two hundred thousand years of homo sapiens
evolution. Access to the world is no longer controlled by few, every voice has
an opportunity to express and be heard -a qualitative leap from past, they can
learn and organize and assert. Traditional forms of authorities and feudal
control is getting diluted as virtual world have progressive ramifications on
real world. World has become much aware in the last one decade than ever
before. Well, people could have taken this path to make world a better place,
and really did take some firm steps towards progressive values systems and
nurturing inclusive institutions facilitated by technology. What we see however
is consolidation of worst expressions of technology tapping primal values and
atavistic concerns that bypass progress humanity made in last many centuries
and hard-won humanistic values. Primed in extractive systems, neoliberal
capitalism and values extrapolated from fantastical religions and juvenile
faiths we are being pushed into perilously fissured world. Bad players use these
latest technology and access to vitiate the situation for greed and control.
They viciously nurture extractive systems to trap people and spread misery.
Possibilities of awareness is reduced to targeted disinformation and reality
obfuscating misinformation, apathy and irresponsible ways. Life threatening
conspiracy theories are spread with earnestness and cunning logical reasoning
that impress many. As the world gets polarized, we find on the one side liberal
posing dark empath sociopaths and on the other self-assured god ordained
psychopaths. We see this template replicated all across the world in varying
degree. Psychopaths deem themselves as born to lead hence aren’t really
bothered about people or nuances, they use latest technologies as opportunity
to access to blatantly control by whatever means -an Orwellian world if you
will. While dark empaths are narcist who consider themselves as blessed
exceptional people but have to relentlessly pose to gain trust and capitalize
opportunity, they work to nurture extractive system for benefits -a kind of
Huxleyian world that lull us into complacency since we assume they are here to
uphold cherished values and humanistic concerns. They playact with semantics
but are least involved, and as people loose trust in dark empath sociopaths –
who see themselves as savior in increasingly chaotic world they unleash as
liberal while systematically diluting existential concerns of vulnerable people,
they feel insecure hence give way to authority figure -the psychopaths consolidate
feudal and regressive forces. The shift can be debilitating if the democratic
institutions are not resilient which ofcourse is crucially hinged to democratic
ideals and liberal thoughts percolating to common people and their interaction
to the world. The reason why transactional neoliberal value system deeply violate
progressive society so does fantastical ways of religions that isolate from
surrounding reality. An unthinking mind sentimentally connected to feudal
institutions seeks ascriptive association and is insecure,
incapable to assimilate challenges of progressive world hence will find solace
in authoritarian patriarchal leaders. Rise of authoritarian is on primal need
for safety and not to be mistaken for progressive evolved values of seeking authority
of facts to decipher reality for better possibility. The need for authority is
to protect their fantasy world, an evolutionary mismatch trapped in thousands
of years of brutal hunter gatherer life that seek ‘strong father figure’ leader to sought
out problems and take control. Primitives like to wallow in the muck while simultaneously
constructing fantasy of spectacular past and nostalgia for this self-consuming
myth -very likely genetic imprint traces reminiscing exhilaration of chasing
wild pigs or grand celebration of bringing down a mammoth. These evolutionary
juveniles haven’t gained sophistication to become aware of enlightened world
and possibilities of present.
Science is an effective
intellectual tool that helped humanity make breathtaking progress and dramatic
conceptual understanding in past century, but in recent times these itself are
questioned and have become ‘totem of polarization’. The authors try to clarify
scientific methodology and attempt to create framework of understanding for
common people in tackling and deciphering the challenges in daily life. It is a
meticulous work of distinguishing measuring tool from thinking tool, creating
parameters for evaluating information on what we know and what we believe. This
thinking tool of science is an asset that helped us to make immense progress and
hence can help in creating inquiring inquisitive mind to decipher the reality.
I recall when we studied science in school we didn’t study ‘thinking tool of
science’ that would have helped us to extend this brilliant progress of thinking
into everyday understanding of realities of life. This book therefore is also
an important document for creating new insight into scientific thinking in
formative years. Vibrant societies should be able to capitalize on these to
create progressive young minds. Meanwhile the concern now is urgent nature of
polarized manipulated world we live in and how systematic sincere dealing of
issue with progressive tool will create understanding. This is third millennium
thinking.
The book is quite readable and in
easy-to-understand language with not much jargons. Neatly divided into five
chapters, it deals with science as a tool in building trust in shared
understanding of reality hence can guide us in our daily decision making. Good
decision making depends on accurate information from reliable experts, a
careful consideration of values, and a structure that places the authority to
make decisions in the hands of those who will be affected. Science doesn’t work
by magic; it works by design. Authority of science comes from relentless self-questioning thus
science essentially is a social phenomenon, but a truth hunting collaborative
social phenomenon, not a coercive one. It helps us identify shared reality out
there in the world. Finding out causation by looking at correlation under the
condition of an experiment, standardizing factors. An experiment is when you
come from outside the whole system and interfere with to see what happens.
Science is not about certainty nor brittle binary views but probabilistic
thinking. Probabilistic thinking helps
us to be honest about our knowledge and keep us open minded to productively use knowledge that is uncertain. Probabilistic stance reflects the relationship
between our imperfect human understanding and the actual shared reality (well
wasn’t it Wittgenstein who said scientific truths could never have absolute
validity). In a world of inherent uncertainty scientists are calibrated. We
want our experts to be 100percent correct but that is not possible, but we can
and should seek experts close to 100percent calibrated. In an uncertain world,
we should prize experts who are calibrated. Experts needs to calibrated enough
to be trustworthy, but specific enough to be informative. Honest and realistic
assessment of confidence can preserve trust in expertise. There is a chapter on
how we are fooled by a pattern in random noise, or sieving more data to up the
odds so that random noise show some hunted data. Probabilistic thinking,
statistically significant, improving predictive/forecasting tools so on are
path to understanding. Statistical uncertainty and systematic uncertainty are
something most of us are aware of and helps us to identify biases in our
decision making.
The world needs scientific
optimism -the can-do spirit that the problem at hand is going to be solvable, tempered
with measured healthy skepticism. It is to keep alert, alive, and motivated
despite setbacks, a cultural antidote to cynicism. I found ‘order of
understanding’ quite interesting, not all causal factors in real world problem are
equally important -the classification of ‘first order’, ‘second order’, factor
so on, while framing an issue. ‘Fermi approximation’ process, a quick and easy
on the spot estimation approach, a random estimation based on familiar easier
to do as an anchor to probe. An approach to intelligent approximation is a valuable
insight. If unsure you can atleast create upper and lower bound estimation, a
band of possibility. There is an interesting chapter on what prevents learning
from experience, indeed experience is a weak predictor of job performance. The
psychological factors -habits, biases-the one that makes systemic error/ingroup/dispositional/confirmation/available heuristic so on can be overcome with scientific methods that includes
debiasing techniques like consider the opposite/alternative so on. How science
is misused provides important perspective on growing distrust among common
populace. From science not done well to pathological science to pseudo-science
(uses language of science -the terminology, great sounding words, but not the
activity -based in India we see these charlatans all the time!) to fraudulent
science. Of these, pathological science is particularly worrisome as it invests
in exciting result ignoring data that suggests otherwise. Trying out different
analysis until you get the result you want (p hacking, it is not cherry
picking) adds to the problem. There are examples cold fusion claims (or recent
superconductivity claim -not mentioned in the book but I recall being excited
about it) so on.
The stimulating part of the book is
the discussion on science methodologies -mental hygiene techniques, that are
quite new (and have not even spread to different field of science) so the
‘readers of the book have a chance to get ahead of science world’. ‘Ignorance
is bliss solution’ or blind analysis removes biases and remain honest. Blinding
is now tried in workplace to reduce discriminations. Blind analysis based
expert opinion in court proceeding is suggested. Next, we have ‘open science
movement’ to improve credibility and integrity in scientific practice. Preregistration,
multilab investigation, open science badges so on are safeguard against confirmation
bias. The book move to collective, the groupthink and mob behavior, resonation
from social media to real life implication. There are two different kinds of
influence in groups, informational influence (strength in argument -ability to
merge collective knowledge of the group and use it to reason to a solution) and
normative influence (strength in numbers -deference to large block or faction,
hence amplify shared bias -which can be removed by diversity). For argument to
work there is a need for some kind of shared conceptual system for identifying
strong and weak argument and a shared way of assessing. Maths, logic, common
knowledge etc. are shared conceptual systems. Good scientific theories can
serve as shared conceptual system, provided they have strong internal logic and
support of external evidence. Shared conceptual systems can help build trust
and platform for interaction. Another is the issue of emotions or extraneous
factors that influence; decisions are not based on getting facts of the world
alone. The book discusses with example on separating fact from values. Facts
are important but claims of fact (fact stories) can be shaped by societal
forces making it difficult to separate fact from values. Self-affirmation in
case of value conflict is an interesting study, and has been implemented in
schools to help students absorb new information. Reflective equilibrium between
our judgement about particular case and our judgment of general rules/principles
and prioritizing helps in value conflict resolution. There is a role for
iterative deliberation concerning values just as there is iterative
deliberation to adjudicate among different sources of evidence and expertise
when determining facts. Ofcourse deliberation is an important challenge of our
time. We have become aware of dangerous potential of the internet to polarize
and confuse public conversation; but not yet taken advantage of opportunities
for better collective thinking that it might present. Our collective challenge,
indeed grand challenge of the times we live in, is to invent new tools that
enables to think together productively and make us successful collectively. Productive
collective thinking is the immediate need to tackle global challenges we face,
importantly to create productive collective thinking environment. Deliberative
Polling (developed in Stanford ‘Deliberative Democracy Lab’ by JimFishkin) is a
transformative tool for productive collective thinking. So is Scenario Planning,
to develop a range of possible futures so that we can test how robust decisions
are in these contexts, identifying pending important decisions that need to be
made, a useful tool for stimulating careful thinking and planning for future -a
frequent goal for collective thinking and decision making. Good Judgement
Project (GJP) -a statistical method distilling ‘wisdom of crowd’, is a
forecasting technique that is effective collective thinking in action. Collective
thinking experiments are now extended to online, DebateCafe is a demonstrative
system encouraging people to enter best arguments on both side of the issue to
win place in leaderboard. Another is to decompose elements of discussion in,
say, news article into small testable part. Does this sentence show evidence of
clear probabilistic thinking or is it a probabilistic thinking mental trap like
p hacking? Does it have capacity to think the opposite or is it a classical
confirmation bias selection of evidence? These could be important addition to
education curriculum. Citizen-Scientist are set up to share these kinds of
analysis. We want science to not only increase our understanding but also solve
problem that is not confined to scientific field but ones with social
ramifications.
Managing with continuous adjustment,
an iterative solution in an experimenting society that isn’t a static structure
but ongoing process, a shift from factual to probabilistic thinking, multilevel
nuanced views of emergent problems through constant reality tracking rather
than appearing smart expert, zero sum to increase the pie for win-win, involving
and trying new innovative collective thinking tool taking advantage of latest technologies,
building and rebuilding of trust network, not attention (seeking) economy but
trust (building) economy that nurtures new ways to reward open minded
collective thinking, experiment with incentives and penalties to reform the
pollution of cognitive commons. This is new millennium thinking. A new kind of
enlightenment for a new millennium in which we advance global human family.
A brilliant much needed book. Buy it. Read it. Think about it. Try to apply it.
Sunday, December 15, 2024
A steady step by qubit and a giant leap in computing
Google’s Willow is a breathtaking
step towards tapping quantum reality (I almost missed this news since I was
disconnected from the world for few weeks and took days to get my bearings).
The implications of this quantum computing chip are significant. The mind-blowing
computation power that it unlocks has paradigm shifting implications. For a start
Willow can perform computation that would take regular computers longer than
age of universe! (Hartmut Neven founder of Google Quantum AI claims that this “lends
credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs in many parallel
universes, in line with the idea that we live in a multiverse”).
Willow is a significant milestone
in quantum computing since it removes error rates, and thus makes it reliable.
As more qubits are added quantum computing becomes more error prone (these are
very fragile even microscopic
material defects, cosmic rays and ionizing radiation can destabilize) therefore
severely restricting the progress. Willow chip is 105qubit, it has doubled the
capacity but what is important is not the number but the sophistication of
qubit -vastly improved retention time allowing information to be held for
longer time hence stability. Importantly Willow not only reduces error but
reduces it exponentially as it scales up! Each qubit addition therefore strengthen
reliability; a scalable logical qubit. A benchmark is set. This is stupendous. These
are early days but it may not be exaggeration to say (hopefully claims are peer
vetted) that this is akin to invention of steam engine or electricity or human
on the moon. Technology is unravelling at mindboggling speed this one truly
stands out. A giant step towards stable quantum computers. This is moment of reckoning.
We are entering a new realm set to unleash possibilities that is difficult to
conceive. It would help tackle humanity’s greatest challenges as it turbo charge
R&D.
The immediate concern here is of binary
computer decryption and imminent collapse of digital world. There are assertions that
Willow will not break modern cryptography. Willow will not but few iterative upgradations
in a decade or so will surely. The concern also is whether corporate in a neoliberal
ecosystem or a state with authoritarian concern (like China or even US under
Trump) will reveal that they have achieved Cryptanalytically Relevant Quantum Computer
(CRQC) before acquiring sensitive data. The world is shifting fast towards post
quantum cryptography to save critical data. The sophisticated math-based
algorithm needed makes it inaccessible. Data pirates are out to harvest now and
decrypt later. Quantum safe cryptography standards are being integrated into products
and systems. State agencies and crucial infrastructure will
have to move fast and upgrade all their communication systems to post quantum cryptography.
Monday, December 09, 2024
A pulsation that is shaped in universe
ChatGPT's horror
Saturday, November 23, 2024
Tapping unpredicted pattern
I am totally into AI (frankly I
am totally into anything that interests and excites, I get sidetrack quite
often and loose my way). I also like to observe my wacky brain -messed up jelly
that goes haywire, that I chase even to the darkest corners (and I am quite
sure each brain is as messy). It is an interesting ride, provided you keep it
in leash not to cross the law and poke too much into social norms that offend
herd, not that I am bothered. What is remarkable about human brain (incidentally the most sophisticated
thing in the universe) is that, eventhough it is distracted quite easily and is
mostly restive and in danger of doing absolute crap, when it concentrates it
can go on for hours without you even realizing. Left to my own I can go on
forever. There are instances where you start reading a book in the night, and
then start hearing crows and ask yourself ‘what’s with the crows?’ and realize
it is morning!
AI is emergent alright, and can
connect patterns which may not be accessible to us (the other day Hassabis was
quoted saying that within five years we will get enough sophistication to make
black box transparent, like a brain scan!). So, it can connect nuanced and
sophisticated patterns hence emergent creative qualities. It is therefore more
than what it is fed is settled thing. What is really interesting is unintended.
This grey area of gibberish referred to as hallucination. I recall interesting
take on it as mutation (Suleyman). So, it is possible to be alive to another
reality that is yet to be explored. Studying how my brain works -particularly
in acquiring english, and the strategies I aligned to, helps me to understand working
of generative AI better. There is something much interesting that happens
sometimes, and that is tapping into unpredicted pattern, and this is what I am
quite excited about when it comes to AI, apart from all the latest breathtaking innovations.
When I access an idea or an
interesting complexity or an ephemeral thought and want to convert it into writing I am more focused on
few keywords and so immediately push in chain of words into the slots to create
a sentence. Many a times the jumble spreads to intended meaning and you can refine it
further but mostly it is gibberish, so you access the iterative learning of
structure of language from persistent reading to work a logical sequence. And
when it feels right you know you have done the job as a communicator, as
a writer. What is remarkable here is sometimes words sequencing into unintended
pattern. This has happened to me many times, particularly while scribbling
poems and occasionally while writing paragraphs. Some line, that is unintended pattern, carrying insightful
idea appear from nowhere and wrench it into entirely different direction and
take you by complete surprise. This is what is immensely exciting, the access
to unknown -not as well thought out deliberate logical action but unexpressed and unexpected, and you really have to be ready for it. It is like walking
in crowded Chandni chowk with myriad bylanes and turns and you accidently step
into one and end up at an interesting place! Sometimes I end in unintended
pattern as I mistook the meaning of word and use it without realizing and later
when cross check with dictionary I get meaning and a hint of a new thought. What is
clear is unintended pattern exist and is within the realm of reach. I am quite
excited about this as I do the parallel possibility with AI. Imagine the best
of writers from all the languages and the possibility of AI that could bring
out sophisticated unintended pattern from extremely sensitive and talented writings, it is accessing something deeper than complex subconscious.
This is one space worth watching.
Friday, November 22, 2024
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Carbon emission responsibility
So, they are fighting over who is
developed and who is developing at COP. While we are still at the basics the monarchist
feudal hedonistic theocratic fuel guzzling Saudis are doing their do, that is,
being irresponsible and carefully skirting the line which could see West fall in
their own trap of Islamophobia and so angst back off! Well, ruffled feathers
could be mend with expensive gifts. Nice. Meanwhile in 2025 arrogant Americans
will present the savior of white gun hugging racist christians to the world. Every
charlatan will find a readymade scapegoat on the world stage to point finger and
take eyes off them as they cut loose and go digging for oil. The herd is blissfully
unaware, and when there is a deluge and find themselves stranded in flood they
realize there is no help coming from anywhere. As these becomes normal, they
will be forgotten and dumped into nearest pit. There are next cyclones, forest fires,
heatwaves, food price to worry about.
There is no binary of developed and developing in climate debate. There is no them and us in global crisis. Some regions have historical pollution that gave them all the luxuries -ofcourse they were smart to invent and discover science and technology and new ways to prosper, good for them, but now when we calculate the carbon in the atmosphere their contribution cannot be negated, and they will have to take responsibility, and will have to pay according to their share. Which also means we cannot hinge everything on historical polluters and not fix responsibility on present days wanton emitters. Instead of fixed nations and binary of developed and developing some new mechanism of fixing responsibility must be thought about. World has advanced in last few decades the knowledge of these must be included. Essentially it is a multinational effort involving multidisciplinary experts and professionals from crucial areas. With my limited understanding, using the knowledge of punting (wherein there are various factors that influence the outcome of a race, historical data -past performance, incidents, races in various distances, timing after handicap factoring, age, shift in equipment and performance so on, latest data -training details, weight gains, handicap, distance, trainer record, jockey skills/weight, equipment change so on, dynamic data -that is evolving including look of the horse at paddock, grapevine information, cheating pattern so on and open to new unexpected factors), there are more complexities. Hence the system must be attuned to cater to these. For instance, historical pollution is a factor that include reparation as compensation, and for the contemporary pollution, per capita emission be taken and then use measurements like Gini coefficient -assign some value so that we get a fair representation. Total emission of nation must also be a factor, and be calculated on the areas/size of the nation, so that population increase is not an incentive and shouldn’t hide under capita emission ruse by richer sections in poor countries. There are many factors including dynamic, like, actions taken by state (and not promises), after comprehensive evaluation all these be given weightage (indeed the discussion should have been on this) and with the use of sophisticated AI come out with a new understanding on fixing responsibility and strategies. Mitigative actions carry complexities and conditions of region hence resources be assigned accordingly. I am sure much smarter people with experience have better insights.
Tuesday, November 19, 2024
Trees face extinction
Trees are defining component of many ecosystems, and are fundamental
to life on Earth through their role in carbon, water and nutrient cycles, soil
formation and climate regulation. They provide habitat for many species
as also livelihood to people. Trees cool the surrounding and provide shade, as also
contribute to identity and aesthetics of the place. Trees are part of myth, folklore
and stories, and are soul satisfying presence. Many species of plants and trees are saved
by “kavu” -sacred groves in the forest or dense vegetation mostly inhabited by
snakes, quite common in Kerala and Coorg (Karnataka). These are preserved for thousands of years and traces to proto religion
that respected nature (possibly for fear of unknown forces that dense dark
forest represented). There are no deity but some rocks or shape of cobra's hood. You light a lamp and do a
silent pray, and leave everything as it is. As basic and as profound. Ofcourse in recent times religion has claimed these spaces and vandalized with structures and noise, but the sacredness remains and is therefore protected. These
spaces are now refuge for rare species of plants and trees, and possibly microorganisms
that will have much significance in future.
Clearing forest for farming and agriculture are the biggest
threat to trees apart from logging, as also pests and diseases that is set to rise
with increase in temperature. Increasing number of forest fires have significantly
impacted the species biomass. Recent study points to possible extinction of
legume tree, Vachellia bolei, along the TamilNadu coast mainly due to
sand mining and conversion for cultivation. Human population and increasing
consumption is the common factor in all the problems we face. Yet devious people
are worried about falling fertility rate in some regions (as society evolves and
increase in sophistication population will decrease, it is now for the technology
to compensate as also increase comfort with more efficiency and less
consumption of resources). Dark empaths working on neoliberal needs and primitive
parameters of religion perform worry for falling human population and sniff out
these as ‘news’. These opportunists shouldn’t be allowed to control narration. There
cannot be any incentive for increasing human fertility.
*According to the report magnolias are most threatened tree
species. Sampige (Magnolia Champaca) is a special tree, I used to carry those light-yellow
tepals (tepals are fused petals and sepals -fun fact here is magnolias
evolved before bees and depend on beetles for pollination hence these sturdier
tepals) in my pocket -such agreeable light fragrance. Sampige road in Bangalore
is now crowded and noisy hell but in mid-2000s was much quieter and a lovely
place to walk.
Sunday, November 17, 2024
The rise of dark empaths
There is consolidation of extreme forces in
democratic societies across the world favoring authoritarian leaders. Rising
insecurity and disconnect in globalized world and lack of worth in increasingly
transactional nature of society could be factors. What is not given much
attention is the sinister rise of dark empaths and how they systematically
degraded institutions. The reason why there is no caution against dark empaths
is because they are quite comfortable in neoliberal value system hence have
occupied crucial positions and narration controls. They define success hence
the characteristic of dark empaths is positioned as desirable. Dark empaths
moved in into the mainstream in mid-1990s as the neoliberal world went about
globalizing. Consumerism defined every aspect of deal from news to
entertainment to education to even human relations and emotions. If
it has market value then it is useful, everything else can be dumped or strive
to find monetization potential. Unthinking youngsters trapped in the system earnestly
go about working out career in jobs that seeks monetization possibility from anything
anywhere. The neoliberal claws are ready and constantly sharpened to grasp any
possibility of monetization even in bleakest of situation. In this extractive system technology adds to the
efficiency of exploit and effectiveness of control.
Empathy is important and a valued attribute that defines human being. To be attuned to other’s emotions and care for their feelings is even exhibited by most toddlers before they even learn to speak. Empathy makes us social beings and for a considerate and caring society -evidence shows that the extinct humans Neanderthals also exhibited empathy and cared for their sick. Dark empaths however use empathy to manipulate for gains, named after a 2021 study, it is characterized by dark traits combined with empathy. Dark empaths use cognitive empathy, so they cognitively recognize how something might make you feel, and use that knowledge to manipulate you. Cognitive empathy is logically understanding other’s feeling and needs. It is different from emotional empathy wherein the person feels the worry and pain as if they are jointly experiencing hence cannot keep detached, there is a genuine remorse. There is another much deeper empathy referred to as compassionate empathy -a strong desire to help others and will go out of the way to make other’s feel better. I have come across compassionate empathy they are rare gem of a people who really shouldn’t be existing in this cruel world. Long time back as a witness to an accident on Pusa Road, and here I was emotionally empathizing and distressed, this girl went out of the way to help the man, she poured water and used bare hands to carefully wipe his face to reduce pain (it’s a nasty world, and sincerely hope she is in better surrounding with her world intact, such people don’t last long). I also have come across nurses with zero empathy who probably wouldn’t mind pulling the plug. Some 16years back I wrote about psychopaths in media who filmed a dying man, you may visit https://depalan.blogspot.com/2008/06/how-to-put-value-on-human-life.html.
The rise of attention seeking economy have only
empowered dark empaths as they spread wide and across. The woke backlash consolidated
them as defender of higher values that has diminishing takers. Meanwhile common
people across the world pay a heavy price as democratic institutions takes
beating and so the critical issues of climate breakdown and biodiversity loss. Dark empaths for their nefarious gain have significantly contributed to rise of authoritarianism
and diminishing crucial issues and polarization of society. I was reading Han
Kang’s Human Act -strongly recommended book, these few lines are
pertinent “…we’d all performed the miracle of stepping outside the shell of our
own selves, one person’s tender skin coming into grazed contact with another,
felt as though they were rethreading the sinews of that world heart, patching
up the fissures from which blood had flowed, making it beat again. That was
what captured me, what has stayed with me ever since…”. Other is not imagined. Other
is lived. Lived in experiences that binds to profound realization of humanity.
**the pic herein is of common place black empath in India.